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基于K-means和改進(jìn)KNN算法的風(fēng)電功率短期預測系統
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商洛學(xué)院 商洛

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TP183;TM614

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:國家自然科學(xué)(No.61501107);陜西省教育廳2019年度專(zhuān)項科學(xué)研究計劃項目(No.19JK0261);商洛學(xué)院服務(wù)地方科研專(zhuān)項項目(No.19FK002)。


Wind Power Short-term Forecasting System Based on K-means and Improved KNN Algorithm
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    摘要:

    為提高風(fēng)電功率短期預測的準確性,針對KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm)算法在風(fēng)電功率預測中的不足,提出了基于K-means和改進(jìn)KNN算法的風(fēng)電功率短期預測方法。利用K-means聚類(lèi)方法確定風(fēng)電歷史樣本的類(lèi)別,對KNN算法中搜索相似歷史樣本集的方式進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)和優(yōu)化,構建了預測模型,并采用C/S架構實(shí)現了預測系統的設計。該系統具有自修正功能,能夠隨著(zhù)預測次數的增加,不斷修正預測模型,逐漸降低預測的誤差率。以吉林省某風(fēng)電場(chǎng)歷史數據為樣本進(jìn)行了仿真分析,結果顯示該算法與其它算法相比平均絕對誤差和均方根誤差最大下降1.08%和0.48%,運算時(shí)間提升了5.45%,在風(fēng)電功率超短期多步預測中具有推廣應用價(jià)值。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the accuracy of short-term prediction of wind power, in view of the shortcomings of KNN (K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm) algorithm in wind power prediction, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on K-means and an improved KNN algorithm is proposed . The K-means clustering method is used to determine the types of historical wind power samples, the method of searching for similar historical sample sets in the KNN algorithm is improved and optimized, a prediction model is constructed, and the C/S architecture is used to realize the design of the prediction system. The system has a self-correction function, which can continuously correct the forecast model as the number of forecasts increases, and gradually reduce the error rate of the forecast. A simulation analysis with historical data of a wind farm in Jilin Province is carried out. The results show that compared with other algorithms, the algorithm has the largest decrease in average absolute error and root mean square error by 1.08% and 0.48%, and the calculation time has increased by 5.45%,ultra-short-term multi-step forecasting has the value of promotion and application.

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何建強,張玉萍,滕志軍.基于K-means和改進(jìn)KNN算法的風(fēng)電功率短期預測系統計算機測量與控制[J].,2022,30(5):156-162.

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-03
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-03
  • 錄用日期:2021-12-03
  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2022-05-25
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