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基于EMD-SVR的火電廠(chǎng)SCR脫硝系統出口NOx濃度預測研究
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西安建筑科技大學(xué)

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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(面上項目,重點(diǎn)項目,重大項目)


Prediction of NOx Concentration at the outlet of SCR Denitrification System in Thermal Power Plant Based on EMD-SVR
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    摘要:

    針對火電廠(chǎng)選擇性催化還原(Selective Catalytic Reduction,SCR)脫硝系統出口NOx濃度預測準確率低的問(wèn)題,提出一種基于經(jīng)驗模態(tài)分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)和支持向量機回歸(Support Vector Machine For Regression,SVR)的火電廠(chǎng)脫硝系統出口NOx濃度預測模型。首先,利用EMD算法將出口NOx濃度數據序列進(jìn)行分解,得到不同時(shí)間尺度下有限個(gè)本征模函數(Intrinsic Mode Function,IMF);然后引入SVR算法對NOx濃度分解數據進(jìn)行建模預測;最后,將所有IMF的預測結果求和作為出口NOx濃度的最終預測值。通過(guò)對提出的EMD-SVR與標準的SVR、BP、ELM、EMD-BP和EMD-ELM模型進(jìn)行對比驗證,結果表明,基于EMD-SVR模型的預測精度較高,預測結果與真實(shí)值相比較,方向變化統計量(Directional Statistics,Dstat)、平均絕對百分比誤差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error,MAPE)和均方根誤差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)為0.914、1.51%和0.346mg/Nm3。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem of low prediction accuracy of NOx concentration at the outlet of selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) denitrification system in thermal power plants, a prediction model of NOx concentration at the outlet of denitrification system in thermal power plant based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Support Vector Machine for Regression (SVR) was proposed.Firstly, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm was used to decompose the data series of NOx concentration at the outlet of denitrification system in thermal power plants, and a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) were obtained at different time scales. Then, the SVR algorithm was used to model and predict the decomposition data of NOx concentration. Finally, the prediction results of all IMFs were added up. The sum is used as the final predictor of the concentration of NOx at the outlet.By comparing the proposed EMD-SVR with standard SVR, BP, ELM, EMD-BP and EMD-ELM models, the results showed that the prediction accuracy based on EMD-SVR model was higher. Compared with the real values, the directional statistics (Dstat), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.914, 1.51% and 0.346 mg/Nm3,respectively.

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王博,趙亮,趙長(cháng)春,黨寧.基于EMD-SVR的火電廠(chǎng)SCR脫硝系統出口NOx濃度預測研究計算機測量與控制[J].,2020,28(5):71-75.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2019-10-24
  • 錄用日期:2019-10-25
  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2020-05-25
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