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In order to effectively evaluate the combat effectiveness of anti-ship missile in ocean atmospheric duct environment, truly reflect it’s combat capability, and better serve the combat use, aiming at the problem that atmospheric duct will change the transmission path of radar electromagnetic wave, the influence of ocean atmospheric duct on the penetration and guidance capability of anti-ship missile in the course of attacking surface ship and confrontation is studied and analyzed. Then on the base of these, the combat effectiveness model of anti-ship missile in ocean atmospheric duct environment is established by using probability analysis method after introducing atmospheric duct influence factor. Finally, an example of the model is calculated, and the calculation results are consistent with the actual situation that the ocean atmospheric duct can enhance the operational effectiveness of anti-ship missile, that prove the rationality and practicability of the model which well reflects the actual situation of the anti-ship missile's operational effectiveness in ocean atmospheric duct environment and provides a new way For combat effectiveness evaluation of anti-ship missile in ocean atmospheric duct environment.